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So just how much damage has HD-DVD's zombie act done to the prospects for high definition disc formats? Has it bought enough time for HD downloads to become a realistic prospect for consumers, or even for the concept to start to take root in their imaginations?
The problem which HD downloads face is simply that the market is not yet ready for them. Broadband connections even in relatively developed countries like the United Kingdom simply aren't up to the speeds required for multi-gigabyte downloads of movie content. Although speeds of 25 and even 50 megabits are advertised by some providers, the reality for UK consumers is that their broadband probably runs at somewhere between 2 and 5 megabits - and much, much lower in certain areas. With some notable exceptions, much of the rest of the world is in the same boat; the reality of broadband lags behind its promise.
Consumers, too, aren't quite ready for download content. I don't doubt that they will be, and sooner than many pundits believe - the attachment to physical products is not remotely as strong as some high street retailers and content publishers would like to think, as the incredibly fast transition from CD to music downloads is proving. However, we're simply not quite there yet, and it certainly doesn't help that few consumers are sporting home networks and properly configured media servers, replete with large hard drives, in their living rooms. Equally, it doesn't help that while consumers may be prepared to shed their attachment to physical products, they're still not going to give much ground on the question of ownership - and rental models where movies "time out" after a certain period, or can only be watched a certain number of times, are likely to prove to have very narrow appeal.
It's not fair, perhaps, to say that Microsoft's gambit has failed. If Blu-Ray had become established a year earlier, it would have been a serious blow to the Xbox 360, and to Microsoft's ambitions both in downloads and in videogames. On the other hand, Sony can heave a sigh of relief that the damage done has been fairly limited - and can undoubtedly expect a major boost both for PS3 sales and for its share price off the back of Toshiba's capitulation. 2ff7e9595c
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